12 Times Weather Forecasts Were So Wrong It Became Legendary
From catastrophic storms to unexpected snowfalls, these legendary weather forecasting failures remind us that nature always has the last word, no matter how advanced our technology becomes.
- Alyana Aguja
- 5 min read
Weather predictions have a long tradition of being surprisingly inaccurate, and they have created some of the most notorious and unexpected natural catastrophes. From enormous snowstorms to lethal hurricanes, these prediction mistakes have taught us about the unpredictable force of nature. Through examining these mythic mistakes, we not only learn about the boundaries of contemporary science but also the strength and flexibility needed when Mother Nature surprises us.
1. The Great Blizzard of 1888 (USA)
Image from STM Weather
The weather forecast had anticipated a light snowfall in the northeastern United States, but the area was instead struck by one of the most severe and deadliest blizzards in American history. More than 400 individuals lost their lives as snowdrifts as high as 50 feet covered roads, and telegraph wires were severed. The incident prompted the establishment of the U.S. Weather Bureau, now the National Weather Service, to enhance the accuracy of forecasting.
2. The 1991 Perfect Storm (USA)
Image from Wikipedia
The meteorologists forecast a fairly modest storm but did not accurately gauge the meeting of various weather systems, forming a calamitous nor’easter. The storm became famous worldwide, particularly after it led to the filming of the movie The Perfect Storm in 2000. It was an error that resulted from an uncommon interplay of events, such as the Gulf Stream and an unprecedented low-pressure system.
3. Hurricane Katrina (2005, USA)
Image from Wikipedia
Predictions in the period preceding Hurricane Katrina indicated that the storm would simply move through New Orleans. The storm, however, changed direction and grew much more quickly than anticipated, causing catastrophic flooding and more than 1,800 fatalities. The event resulted in widespread condemnation of the National Hurricane Center for downplaying its strength and potential.
4. The 2007 UK Summer Floods
Image from Wikipedia
During the summer of 2007, the UK experienced record amounts of rain, but forecasters were surprised by the extent and timing of the flooding. The Met Office had forecast a relatively dry summer, but torrential rains in late June and July produced disastrous flooding that hit more than 55,000 homes. The experience highlighted how challenging it is to accurately forecast localized, heavy rainfall events.
5. The 1974 Super Outbreak (USA)
Image from Spectrum News
Meteorologists in 1974 forecasted severe storms brewing across the middle of the U.S. but did not foresee the magnitude of the tornado outbreak that followed. A record 148 tornadoes in 13 states occurred on April 3-4, resulting in 318 fatalities and more than 5,000 injuries. It’s one of the largest and most costly in the history of the United States, largely because it took meteorologists by surprise.
6. The 2013 European Heatwave
Image from Climate.gov
The 2013 weather models indicated a heatwave in some parts of Europe but did not expect the heat and duration to be as high. The temperatures were record-breaking, especially in France, where they exceeded 40°C (104°F). Most cities battled with extended heat, and forecasts had to be adjusted several times as the phenomenon lasted longer than anticipated.
7. The 1999 Sydney Hailstorm (Australia)
Image from FM
Sydney meteorologists did not foresee the huge hailstorm that attacked the city on April 14, 1999. The storm brought down hailstones the size of tennis balls, causing widespread damage to buildings and cars. The city was taken by surprise, and it ranked as one of Australia’s most expensive weather catastrophes.
8. The 1962 Big Freeze (UK)
Image from Wikipedia
In 1962, the UK was hit by a bad winter storm, although meteorologists had predicted only light snow. The storm resulted in some of the highest snowfall on record, with snowdrifts up to 10 feet in places. The nation was at a standstill for weeks, with transport and power cuts disrupting millions.
9. The 2015 Joplin Tornado (USA)
Image from Weather Underground
In May 2015, the city of Joplin, Missouri, was hit by a devastating EF-5 tornado that caused heavy damage and loss of life. Although a powerful storm had been forecast, the tornado’s sheer power and path weren’t expected. The tornado is still one of the deadliest in U.S. history, in part because the forecast didn’t provide residents with a clear enough warning.
10. Hurricane Sandy (2012, USA)
Image from Britannica
Hurricane Sandy was originally forecast to remain offshore, but the storm took a surprising turn to the west, slamming the heavily populated northeastern U.S. with catastrophic force. Storm forecasters could not completely anticipate the shift in the storm’s track, leading it to hit the heavily populated New Jersey and New York regions. This resulted in widespread destruction, more than 100 fatalities, and extended power outages.
11. The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami (Asia)
Image from Wikipedia
Although a large earthquake was recorded, weather agencies did not alert against the tsunami it created, which hit several nations surrounding the Indian Ocean on December 26, 2004. Predictions did not envision such a large wave, and millions were displaced, with more than 230,000 killed. The catastrophe led to an extensive reform in global tsunami warning systems.
12. The 2010 Icelandic Volcano Eruption (Eyjafjallajökull)
Image from Wikipedia
When Eyjafjallajökull volcano erupted in April 2010, scientists weren’t certain of the size of the ash cloud that would be released. Weather models weren’t able to forecast the extent to which air travel would be affected by the eruption, and the result was more than 100,000 flights grounded in Europe. The disruption was legendary, with passengers stuck for days as the ash cloud persisted.