Broncos Face Uphill Battle With Stidham Against Patriots in AFC Championship

The Denver Broncos will enter the AFC Championship Game with Jarrett Stidham under center, marking a rare but historically challenging scenario in NFL history. Only six teams—including the 1972 Cowboys, 1975 Rams, 1979 Oilers, 1988 Bears, 1992 Bills, and 2025 Broncos—have started one quarterback in the Divisional Round and a different player in the Championship Game.

Past performance suggests Denver faces an uphill climb. Among the five teams that previously experienced this switch, the combined record is 1-4, with the lone victory coming from the 1992 Buffalo Bills combination of Jim Kelly and Frank Reich. Such history provides little optimism for the Broncos’ chances against a well-coordinated New England team.

Analysts caution that even with an experienced offensive mind like Sean Payton leading Denver, the challenge for a quarterback returning from a long absence is steep. Stidham has not started in three years, a factor that may complicate execution against a disciplined Patriots defense.

As the Broncos prepare for their matchup, questions loom over whether Stidham can rise to the occasion or if the historical trend of playoff difficulties for backup quarterbacks will hold true.

1. Historical Precedent

NFL history indicates that changing quarterbacks between the Divisional Round and Championship Game rarely produces positive results. Teams in this situation have generally struggled to maintain momentum, with only the 1992 Bills achieving postseason success with a mid-playoff switch. The Broncos’ scenario mirrors these previous examples: a talented offensive scheme led by a returning quarterback who has been out of action. The statistical odds are not encouraging, and the Patriots’ proven playoff defense amplifies the difficulty. Experts often cite the challenges of timing, chemistry, and preparation when a quarterback returns after a long absence. Even a system-minded coach like Sean Payton must navigate these issues while ensuring the offense can operate efficiently under playoff pressure. For Denver, history does not favor the outcome, and while each situation is unique, the record of 1-4 serves as a cautionary tale heading into a critical postseason matchup.

2. Analyst Concerns

Former NFL quarterback and analyst Dan Orlovsky expressed skepticism about Stidham’s chances on NFL Live. He emphasized that the Patriots’ defense has effectively neutralized top-tier quarterbacks in recent weeks, including CJ Stroud and Justin Herbert, highlighting the difficulty of facing New England without a regular starter. Orlovsky noted, “Sean Payton’s absolutely outstanding. This is a good offense in Denver. It’s the first time this guy’s going to be playing in three years. I think that trend continues.” His assessment underscores the gap between potential and practical readiness for a quarterback in such a high-stakes scenario. Even Nick Foles pointed out that New England has a history of playoff losses to backup quarterbacks, recalling the Eagles’ victory over Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in 2018. However, the current Patriots roster is fundamentally different, and the precedent does not guarantee a repeat performance in Denver’s favor. The consensus among analysts is that while Stidham brings experience and leadership, the combination of long inactivity, playoff pressure, and facing a disciplined New England defense makes the Broncos’ path to the Super Bowl exceptionally challenging.

3. Championship Outlook

The AFC Championship pits a historically flexible but uncertain Broncos offense against a Patriots defense that has proven effective against both starters and backups. New England’s scheme, combined with its playoff discipline, represents a significant obstacle for a quarterback returning from a multi-year hiatus. For Denver, the game will test both Stidham’s readiness and the coaching staff’s ability to tailor the offense to his skill set. Success will require flawless execution and quick adaptation to New England’s defensive adjustments. Even with Sean Payton’s guidance and a talented supporting cast, the Broncos’ reliance on a quarterback with limited recent playing experience heightens the challenge. Any misstep could prove costly in a single-elimination contest. As Stidham prepares to take the field, the Broncos must confront both historical precedent and current realities, knowing that their postseason ambitions hinge on an unlikely but necessary breakthrough performance.