Cincinnati Reds Settle on Burns as Opening Day No. 5 Starter

Following a return to the playoffs in 2025, the Cincinnati Reds are preparing for another postseason push, this time with a rotation that blends proven talent and emerging youth. Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, and Brady Singer have all secured their spots, giving the team a solid foundation. The remaining rotation slot, however, has sparked a competitive spring training battle.

The two front-runners for the fifth starter role are promising right-handers Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder. Burns, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft, made his major league debut in 2025, showing flashes of the upside that made him a top prospect. Lowder, ranked fifth in Cincinnati’s system by MLB Pipeline, missed the entire 2025 season due to injuries but impressed during his 2024 MLB debut.

Spring training provides an opportunity for manager Terry Francona and the coaching staff to assess both pitchers up close. While both understand the stakes, the early signs point to Burns as the more ready option for Opening Day. Consistency, recent experience, and velocity make a compelling case for giving him the nod.

In contrast, Lowder’s layoff and need to regain full competitive form make it difficult to justify inserting him immediately into the rotation. While his talent is undeniable and his 2024 debut was spectacular, Cincinnati is positioned to exercise patience, letting Burns take the first step while Lowder continues to build toward full readiness.

1. Evaluating Lowder’s Readiness

Lowder’s MLB debut in 2024 was nothing short of impressive. Over six starts, the right-hander posted a 1.17 ERA and compiled a 22/14 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His ability to miss bats is evident, though the elevated walk numbers hint at areas needing refinement. Had he stayed healthy in 2025, he might have solidified himself as a top rotation option. However, missing an entire season due to forearm and oblique injuries has slowed his development. While spring training will allow him to regain innings and rebuild mechanics, the gap between minor league rehab and facing major league competition is significant. Team officials are rightfully cautious about rushing him back. Lowder remains a key piece of the Reds’ long-term rotation plans. His raw stuff and proven strikeout ability make him a tantalizing prospect once fully recovered. However, the Opening Day slot is a different challenge: it demands reliability and the ability to handle hitters without extensive lead-in time. Cincinnati’s approach reflects a balance between ambition and pragmatism. By allowing Lowder more time, the team protects both his arm and his potential, ensuring that when he does step into a rotation role, he can contribute consistently at a high level.

2. Burns’ Case for the Fifth Spot

By contrast, Burns is primed for immediate impact. In his 2025 debut, he posted a 4.57 ERA and a 67/16 strikeout-to-walk ratio, demonstrating a combination of raw power and strikeout potential. While his ERA was inflated, his command and ability to miss bats indicate a pitcher capable of adjusting quickly to major league hitters. Burns’ fastball frequently touches the upper 90s, making him a legitimate strikeout threat whenever he takes the mound. Coupled with improved secondary offerings, he possesses the tools to succeed in high-leverage situations. Cincinnati’s coaching staff has already had a close look at his mechanics and approach, giving them confidence in his ability to handle a full rotation role. The rookie right-hander ended his 2025 season on a strong note, limiting opponents to one earned run or fewer in his last seven starts. While strikeout numbers dipped slightly during this stretch, Burns demonstrated the ability to sustain performance over multiple starts—a critical factor for rotation durability. Given his combination of velocity, strikeout potential, and recent success, Burns presents the safest and most logical choice for the Reds’ fifth starter on Opening Day. His immediate readiness allows the team to compete from the first pitch while giving Lowder time to return to form.

3. Planning the 2026 Rotation

Looking ahead, the Reds anticipate utilizing both Burns and Lowder throughout the season. Long-term, the rotation could feature both right-handers in key spots, providing depth and matchup flexibility. However, Opening Day demands a pitcher who can step in immediately, making Burns the preferred option. Cincinnati’s approach reflects a strategic blend of youth development and competitive pragmatism. By starting Burns, the team maximizes its current rotation strength while preserving Lowder’s upside. Fans can expect both pitchers to see meaningful innings, with Burns setting the tone and Lowder joining as health and performance allow. Ultimately, the decision balances immediate team needs with long-term planning. Burns will open 2026 in the rotation, but the stage is set for Lowder to emerge as a formidable contributor later in the season. Both pitchers’ development will be central to the Reds’ hopes of returning to the postseason.