Former NASCAR Broadcaster Predicts Denny Hamlin’s Chances in the Championship Amid Chase Return

Denny Hamlin has been chasing a NASCAR Cup Series championship for what feels like forever. If you’ve been following the sport for any length of time, you know the narrative: he’s arguably the best driver to never win the big one.

He’s got the wins—over 50 of them, including three Daytona 500s. He’s got the consistency. He’s got the equipment. But every single time, something seems to get in the way when it matters most.

Well, the landscape of the sport just shifted in a major way, and it might finally be tilting in Hamlin’s favor. NASCAR recently made the massive decision to scrap the elimination-style playoff format we’ve grown used to and return to the “Chase” format starting in 2026.

This isn’t just a tweak to the rulebook; it’s a fundamental change in how a champion is crowned. And nobody stands to gain more from this than the driver of the No. 11 Toyota.

1. Why the Chase Format Fits Hamlin Like a Glove

For years, the knockout playoff format has been a source of frustration for drivers who value consistency. You could have an incredible 35-race season, dominate the regular season standings, and then have one bad pit stop or a blown tire in the finale at Phoenix, and it’s all over. That’s exactly the heartbreak Hamlin has faced repeatedly. The Chase, however, is a different beast. It rewards the grind. It rewards the guy who finishes in the top five every single week, not just the guy who can pull off a “win and you’re in” Hail Mary. Hamlin is practically the poster child for consistency. Even in seasons where he didn’t win the title, his average finishing position has often been championship-caliber. With the Chase returning, that steady, week-in-week-out performance becomes the most valuable asset a driver can have. You don’t need to be perfect in one specific race; you need to be excellent over a ten-race stretch. That is Denny Hamlin’s bread and butter.

2. Kenny Wallace Weighs In: A Bold Prediction

It’s not just fans speculating on this shift. Former driver and broadcaster Kenny Wallace has thrown his support behind Hamlin in a big way. Wallace, never one to shy away from a bold opinion, sees the format change as the catalyst Hamlin needs. Wallace recently took to social media to back Hamlin, essentially saying that if there was ever a time for the veteran to break his drought, it’s now. The logic is sound. When you look at drivers who suffered most under the “win-and-you’re-in” era, Hamlin is at the top of the list. He consistently ran up front but fell victim to the volatility of the elimination rounds. Having a veteran voice like Wallace in his corner validates what many data analysts have been saying for years: under a points-accumulation system like the Chase, Hamlin would likely already have multiple trophies on his mantle. To understand why this shift matters so much, you have to look at how the 2025 season ended. It was another classic “almost” moment for Hamlin. He was fast. He was leading laps. He looked like he had the car to beat. Then, a late caution changed everything. In the scramble that followed, Kyle Larson—who has become Hamlin’s primary nemesis on the track—managed to slip by and steal the championship. It was a microcosm of Hamlin’s career: doing everything right, only to have circumstances out of his control snatch victory away. Under the Chase format, one bad break in the final race wouldn’t necessarily doom a season. If Hamlin had built up a solid points buffer over the previous nine races, a late caution in the finale might not have been a championship-ending event. That safety net is exactly what has been missing for the No. 11 team.

3. The Competition: It Won’t Be a Cakewalk

Of course, a format change doesn’t mean NASCAR is just going to hand the trophy to Hamlin. The competition is arguably stiffer than it has been in decades. Kyle Larson isn’t going anywhere. As a two-time champion, he’s proven he can win under any set of rules. He’s fast, aggressive, and incredibly talented. The rivalry between Larson and Hamlin is shaping up to be one of the defining stories of this era, and the return of the Chase adds a new layer of strategy to their battles. Then you have the younger guard. William Byron has transformed from a promising rookie into a legitimate title threat, showing he can win on superspeedways and road courses alike. Christopher Bell, Hamlin’s teammate, has quietly become one of the most clutch drivers in the garage. And you can never count out Ryan Blaney, who has that stubborn resilience that keeps him in the hunt even when he’s down. As we look toward the 2026 season, the narrative has shifted from “Can Hamlin win a race?” to “Can Hamlin finally use the system to his advantage?” The aggression level across the field might change. We might see fewer desperate, last-lap dive bombs because a DNF (Did Not Finish) is far more punishing in the Chase than a second-place finish. This plays right into the hands of a veteran like Hamlin, who knows how to manage equipment and manage a race. The pressure is undoubtedly on. At this stage in his career, Hamlin knows his window isn’t open forever. But for the first time in a long time, the road to the championship looks a little less like a lottery and a little more like a marathon. And if there’s one thing Denny Hamlin knows how to do, it’s run fast for a long time.

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