Framber Valdez Tops Free Agent Pitching Market

As MLB teams seek to bolster their rotations, free agency presents a rare opportunity to secure an established ace. Among the available pitchers, Houston Astros stalwart Framber Valdez has emerged as the consensus top option.

Valdez faces competition from San Diego Padres right-hander Dylan Cease, another highly touted free agent. While landing either pitcher would be a win for most organizations, scouts consistently place Valdez at the top of the board due to his elite mix of durability, strikeout ability, and groundball generation.

At 32, Valdez has built a remarkable resume over his eight-year MLB career. Analysts note that he is one of only three pitchers in the past 25 years (alongside Max Fried and Felix Hernandez) to record at least four seasons with a 23% strikeout rate, a 50% groundball rate, and a sub-3.50 FIP over at least 130 innings. His postseason experience is also unmatched, leading all pitchers since 2020 with 85 innings pitched, despite a 4.34 ERA.

The combination of reliability, efficiency, and consistency has made Valdez a highly sought-after commodity. Teams looking to anchor their rotation recognize that signing him could provide immediate impact while maintaining a workload that few other free agents can match.

1. Why Valdez Leads the Market

Valdez’s appeal lies in more than just traditional statistics. Scouts emphasize his elite groundball rate, low walk percentage, and strikeout capability, making him a versatile weapon against lineups of any caliber. “The combination of groundball dominance, minimal walks, and strikeout ability, paired with durability, makes Valdez the clear No. 1 choice,” said multiple scouts cited by The Athletic. Analysts also highlight his ranking on The Athletic’s Free Agent Big Board, where he stands fifth overall and first among pitchers in groundball rate over the last five seasons. Among pitchers who logged at least 500 innings since 2020, Valdez ranks third in limiting home runs, further emphasizing his effectiveness in preventing damage. For teams seeking consistency and longevity, these traits make him particularly valuable. While Dylan Cease remains a strong competitor, scouts argue that Valdez’s proven ability to handle a high workload and maintain elite peripherals sets him apart in this free agent class.

2. Career Highlights and Performance

Over his eight seasons with the Astros, Valdez has compiled a 3.36 ERA and a 1,053/389 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He earned All-Star selections in 2022 and 2023 and has posted at least 169 strikeouts each season since 2022. In 2025, Valdez recorded a 3.66 ERA and a 187/68 K/BB ratio, ranking 20th in the league in strikeouts despite slightly elevated ERA numbers. His performance underscores his consistency and ability to pitch deep into games, giving managers a reliable rotation anchor. Beyond the raw numbers, Valdez’s postseason experience sets him apart. His ability to handle pressure and pitch effectively in October is a key consideration for teams looking to contend immediately. Valdez combines a durable arm with proven strikeout and groundball skills, creating a package that few free agents can match at this stage of their careers.

3. Free Agency Outlook

The 2026 free-agent market will see numerous teams bidding aggressively for Valdez’s services. Contending clubs in need of an anchor starter view him as a rare opportunity to secure a proven ace. While Cease may command attention for his upside, Valdez’s track record and ability to handle a heavy workload give him a clear edge. Teams looking for rotation stability and postseason reliability are expected to prioritize him above other available pitchers. Signing Valdez would instantly upgrade a team’s rotation and provide leadership for younger pitchers. His presence could be the difference between a playoff contender and a middling squad in the American League or National League. Ultimately, whoever secures Valdez will have added arguably the top starting pitcher available in this offseason, a move that could shape their rotation for years to come.