Gilgeous-Alexander Edges Jokic in Early MVP Race as Thunder Surge

The NBA’s early MVP conversation is taking shape, and Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has emerged as the narrow frontrunner. In ESPN’s first MVP straw poll of the 2025–26 season, Gilgeous-Alexander edged Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic in a race that mirrors the league’s recent award history.

Gilgeous-Alexander’s case is anchored by Oklahoma City’s remarkable 25-2 record, a dominant start that has positioned the defending champions on a historic pace. His impact on both ends of the floor has fueled comparisons to some of the game’s greats and reinforced his standing among the league’s elite.

Jokic, meanwhile, remains firmly in the conversation. The Nuggets star continues to deliver elite production, keeping the race tight and setting up what appears to be another season-long duel between the two recent MVP winners.

With months still to go, the poll serves as an early snapshot rather than a verdict. Still, it underscores how small the margins are at the top of the league—and how team success may again shape the final outcome.

1. A Tight Margin at the Top

According to ESPN’s Tim Bontemps, Gilgeous-Alexander collected 57 first-place votes and 865 total points, narrowly surpassing Jokic, who received 42 first-place votes and 822 points. Thirteen other players earned at least one vote, highlighting the depth of star power across the league. The plus-15 advantage in first-place votes gave Gilgeous-Alexander a modest but meaningful edge. It marked the third consecutive straw poll in which he has held a narrow lead over Jokic. The consistency at the top reflects how closely matched the two candidates have been in recent seasons. Each has finished ahead of the other in alternating MVP races, creating an ongoing rivalry defined by excellence rather than separation. As ESPN noted, the margin remains slim enough that any sustained shift—whether in individual production or team performance—could quickly reshape the race.

2. Team Success as a Deciding Factor

One potential separator is Oklahoma City’s pace in the standings. The Thunder’s pursuit of a 70-win season has become part of Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP narrative, offering a team-based edge that could sway voters. ESPN’s analysis suggested that such a historic win total may prove decisive if the individual cases remain close. Team dominance has often served as a tiebreaker in MVP voting, particularly when elite players post comparable numbers. Gilgeous-Alexander’s leadership has been central to Oklahoma City’s consistency, with his scoring efficiency and defensive presence anchoring a balanced roster. The Thunder’s ability to maintain that level over a full season will be closely watched. For Jokic, Denver’s positioning in the West and his continued all-around production remain critical. Any surge by the Nuggets could quickly close the gap in what is shaping up to be another razor-thin finish.

3. Broader Field and Growing Rivalries

Behind the top two, the MVP field features several rising contenders. Los Angeles Lakers star Luka Dončić, Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham, and New York Knicks standout Jalen Brunson rounded out the top five in voting. Dončić was the only player outside the top two to receive a first-place vote, while also leading the group in third-place selections. The results reflected both his individual brilliance and the competitive nature of the race beyond the top tier. Beyond awards, Gilgeous-Alexander has also embraced emerging rivalries. When asked about the possibility of the San Antonio Spurs becoming a long-term rival, he acknowledged the potential, pointing to their youth, talent, and style of play. Oklahoma City continued its strong run with a win over the Los Angeles Clippers to improve to 25-2 and will next face the Minnesota Timberwolves, adding another test as both the MVP race and the Thunder’s historic season continue to unfold.