“I Don’t Have Him in the First Round Right Now,” Peter Schrager says the quiet part out loud on Ty Simpson

The closer the NFL draft gets, the less room there is for polite fiction. That is why Peter Schrager’s assessment of Ty Simpson hit as hard as it did. Not because he dismissed the former Alabama quarterback, and not because he questioned the talent, but because he stripped away the easy draft-show convention of forcing every high-profile passer into a first-round slot.

In a quarterback market full of need, curiosity and projection, Schrager said the uncomfortable part out loud, “This is not a knock at Ty Simpson. I don’t have a team for Ty Simpson. Ty Simpson might be a very good player. He might be the number one quarterback in this draft according to some. I don’t have him in the first round right now … I don’t see a team for him right now.”

With three weeks left before the 2026 NFL Draft begins in Pittsburgh on April 23, Simpson remains one of the most debated players on the board, respected enough to be discussed near the top of the class, but still floating without a clean, obvious home in Round 1.

Alabama’s 2025 starter threw for 3,567 yards and 28 touchdowns while leading the Crimson Tide to an 11-4 season and a College Football Playoff berth, production strong enough to push him into the center of the quarterback conversation. Yet the league’s debate around him has never been only about what he is.

1. Peter Schrager EXPOSES NFL Draft’s Biggest Lie

The easiest mistake in mock-draft season is assuming every quarterback with buzz must belong somewhere in the first round. That habit is driven by history, by positional value and by the annual fear of looking foolish when a team talks itself into upside on Thursday night. Schrager essentially admitted that there is a difference between believing in a quarterback and being able to place him honestly on the board. That may sound obvious, but it is rarely how this part of the football calendar is covered. Quarterbacks warp draft coverage. The position is too important, too expensive and too emotionally loaded for teams, analysts or fans to treat calmly. A guard can be slotted based on value. A corner can be mocked according to need. A quarterback, especially one from Alabama with real arm talent and starter traits, becomes a puzzle everyone feels compelled to solve before the league itself has solved it.

2. The Ty Simpson Paradox

Simpson is not in this conversation by accident. Alabama quarterbacks do not enter the draft without a microscope on them, and Simpson’s 2025 season gave evaluators a real body of work. For long stretches, Simpson looked exactly like the kind of quarterback NFL teams convince themselves they can develop. He moved well, stayed composed in structure and flashed the kind of release and rhythm that keeps pro scouts leaning in. There were games in which he looked in command of Alabama’s offense and, more importantly, looked like he belonged in the next level’s conversation. That is why some evaluators have continued to speak about him with real conviction even while others hold back. But the hesitation around him is rooted in something concrete. Simpson started only one full season. In a league that obsesses over repetitions, exposure and proof against elite competition, one year of full-time tape is never nothing. It can be enough, but it has to be overwhelming. Simpson’s was not. It was good, often very good, and occasionally uneven in ways that left room for doubt. Those doubts intensified late in the season. As the spotlight got brighter, Simpson’s production cooled, and the questions about his readiness became harder to ignore. Some of that came with context. Reports tied part of his late-year decline to injuries, including gastritis and a rib issue, but draft rooms are not built to excuse everything. They are built to measure risk. A front office can understand the explanation and still wonder whether the quarterback it is studying is truly ready to carry a franchise timeline. That is the paradox of Simpson as a prospect. The traits say one thing. The resume says another. The ceiling is easy to discuss. The certainty is harder. He is polished enough to intrigue, but not so finished that teams can stop asking development questions. In a stronger quarterback class, that might place him firmly on Day 2. In a thinner class, it keeps him on the edge of Round 1.

3. Why the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals Are Ty Simpson’s Last Chance at a First-Round NFL Draft Pick

When Schrager mentioned the Jets and Cardinals, he was identifying the franchises whose draft positions make the most sense in a quarterback market like this one. New York owns pick No. 2, pick No. 16, then No. 33 and No. 44. Arizona owns No. 3 and No. 34. That is where the tension begins. Neither team has to force the pick at the very top, but both have enough access near the turn to shape the quarterback board if they choose. The Jets have been one of the loudest teams in the background for a reason. Simpson spent time with key Jets decision-makers in Tuscaloosa, including a dinner and private workout involving the club’s top football leadership. That does not guarantee intent, but it does confirm interest. More importantly, it suggests the Jets are doing serious work on a quarterback who fits the profile of a player they could take without demanding immediate Week 1 pressure. That matters because New York’s quarterback situation is built for ambiguity. The Jets can talk themselves into patience. They can argue that Simpson would benefit from developmental time. They can also convince themselves that No. 33 is safer than No. 16, unless another team forces their hand. That is the draft math Schrager was pointing to. The Jets are plausible, but plausibility is not the same as urgency. Arizona presents the same problem in a slightly different shape. The Cardinals sit at No. 3, far too high for most realistic Simpson projections, but No. 34 gives them leverage. If they love the player enough, they can wait. If they fear losing him, they can move back into the late first. That is why Arizona keeps surfacing in projections even when nobody credible is arguing Simpson should go third overall. The fit is not at the top; the fit is in the flexibility.

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