Joel Klatt Says Arch Manning Needs More Time Before NFL Jump

Before the 2025 college football season began, Arch Manning was touted as the face of the future — the next great quarterback prospect destined to follow in the footsteps of his family legacy. As the starting quarterback for Texas, the expectations were enormous: a Heisman contender, a College Football Playoff berth, and eventually, a first-round selection in the 2026 NFL Draft. But nine games into the year, that narrative has shifted dramatically.

FOX Sports analyst Joel Klatt, one of the most respected voices in college football, believes the hype surrounding Manning has gotten far ahead of his development. Speaking on The Herd with Colin Cowherd, Klatt said the young quarterback still needs significant seasoning before making the leap to the professional level.

“Arch is a decent to average college football quarterback early in his career,” Klatt said. “He’s gonna need at least 20 more starts to be even remotely ready for the National Football League.” His assessment comes as Manning continues to show flashes of potential but remains inconsistent in big moments.

The message from Klatt was clear — Manning’s immense talent is obvious, but the refinement, consistency, and in-game maturity required for the NFL are still developing. For a player who has started just 11 collegiate games, the analyst’s call for patience echoes a broader sentiment around college football circles.

1. A Call for Patience and Development

Klatt’s critique wasn’t meant as a slight — it was a reflection of how difficult it is to prepare a young quarterback for the complexities of the NFL. In his view, the only way to truly grow at the position is through game experience. “You can’t replicate the position [of quarterback] anywhere other than on the field, live in games,” Klatt said. “As he’s starting to develop, as he’s starting to start more games, you’re starting to see him get a little bit better.” He noted that the quarterback position requires around 30 college starts before most players are ready to thrive in the NFL — a benchmark Manning is still well short of. Klatt compared Manning’s situation to other elite prospects who required time to develop before dominating at the next level, pointing out that very few quarterbacks succeed when they leave school too early. Manning’s early struggles are not uncommon for young quarterbacks transitioning into high-level play. The speed of defenses, the complexity of schemes, and the pressure of national expectations can weigh heavily on even the most gifted players. Klatt’s comments reflect a belief that Manning’s ceiling remains high, but he must be allowed to grow without being rushed. The comparison to Trevor Lawrence — a generational talent who succeeded immediately — underscores how unrealistic some of the preseason expectations were. “We all thought he was going to come out and be Trevor Lawrence right away,” Klatt said. “And it didn’t happen.”

2. Draft Stock Decline and the Road Ahead

Despite his immense potential, Manning’s draft outlook has dimmed as the season has progressed. Once viewed as a surefire first-rounder, he now barely appears on most major draft boards. While he remains eligible for the 2026 NFL Draft as a redshirt sophomore, entering the draft after this season would likely be a costly decision for his long-term career. NFL scouts have emphasized that Manning needs more film, more live reps, and greater command of his offense before he can be properly evaluated. For now, his mechanics, field awareness, and timing remain works in progress — issues that can only be fixed through sustained experience at the college level. Meanwhile, other quarterbacks have surpassed him in the eyes of evaluators. Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, Alabama’s Ty Simpson, and Oregon’s Dante Moore have all gained ground, displaying the consistency and production that NFL teams value. Even South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers and Miami’s Carson Beck are ranked ahead of Manning on most draft projections. If Manning chooses to return to Texas, he’ll have the chance to build his résumé, refine his skills, and potentially re-establish himself as a top-tier prospect. For now, however, Klatt’s assessment suggests that the NFL spotlight — once thought to be inevitable — remains on the horizon rather than within reach.

3. The Importance of the Long Game

For Manning, the challenge now lies in balancing patience with ambition. His family legacy — the grandson of Archie and nephew of Peyton and Eli — ensures that expectations will always be sky-high. Yet, those closest to the sport understand that success in the NFL often depends as much on timing as talent. Declaring too early could risk repeating the mistakes of other highly touted prospects who entered the league before they were ready. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian has continued to back his young quarterback, emphasizing growth over perfection. Under his guidance, Manning has shown measurable progress in reading defenses, pocket awareness, and accuracy. With continued development, the raw tools that made him a five-star recruit could evolve into the polish of a future franchise quarterback. For now, Manning’s best move may be to embrace the process — using the next two years to refine his craft, build leadership experience, and mature under pressure. If he does, he could re-enter the national conversation not just as a potential first-round pick, but as one of the most complete prospects of his generation. Ultimately, Klatt’s remarks serve as both a critique and a roadmap: Arch Manning’s talent is undeniable, but his journey is still unfolding.