Notre Dame Holds Edge Over Miami in Tight CFP Race

Each college football season, debate intensifies over which teams deserve a spot in the College Football Playoff, often pitting traditional powers against up-and-coming programs. Historical precedence shows that these decisions can be unpredictable: in 2023, Alabama earned a playoff berth over Florida State, while last season, the Tide were left out in favor of SMU.

This year, Notre Dame and Miami find themselves on the edge of the playoff cut line, with Alabama also in contention but appearing more secure ahead of the SEC Championship and a potential automatic bid. The final rankings could hinge on subtle distinctions in record, strength of schedule, and key head-to-head results.

Notably, Notre Dame has consistently been ranked a few spots ahead of Miami in the CFP standings throughout November, even though Miami won their early-season matchup 27-24 in Week 1. The close victory for the Hurricanes has not yet swayed the committee’s assessment.

Miami closed out its regular season with a dominant 38-7 win over Pittsburgh, prompting head coach Mario Cristobal to urge the CFP committee to weigh that performance alongside the early-season loss. Cristobal emphasized that his team’s resume and common opponents justify reconsideration as rankings are finalized.

1. Miami’s Case for Inclusion

Coach Cristobal has been vocal about Miami’s credentials, highlighting the Hurricanes’ head-to-head win over Notre Dame and strong performances against common opponents. He insists the argument is based on “facts,” not narrative, stressing that Miami has consistently performed at a high level across the schedule. Miami’s late-season dominance over Pittsburgh further bolsters their argument. The 38-7 win showcased offensive balance and defensive strength, with the Hurricanes outperforming Notre Dame’s 31-7 victory against the same opponent just two weeks prior. Despite these compelling metrics, external opinions have created additional pressure. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian made a subtle critique regarding a late-game touchdown by Miami, pointing to the subjectivity and scrutiny involved in CFP evaluations. The Hurricanes’ challenge is now largely about perception. They need the committee to recognize both the early-season head-to-head victory and their superior recent performance to earn a spot in the playoff field.

2. Notre Dame’s Current Advantage

Notre Dame has maintained a narrow but consistent advantage in the CFP rankings over Miami throughout November. The Irish’s position reflects the committee’s emphasis on overall body of work, consistency, and quality wins, rather than a single early-season setback. The Fighting Irish closed their regular season with solid results, including a 31-7 win over Pittsburgh, demonstrating both scoring capability and defensive reliability. This performance reinforced the committee’s decision to keep Notre Dame ahead of the Hurricanes. Notre Dame’s track record this season suggests the team has navigated the schedule without major missteps, bolstering their résumé in a close race for one of the final playoff spots. Head-to-head loss to Miami, while noted, has been outweighed by overall consistency and other evaluative criteria. The committee’s approach illustrates a trend: early losses do not automatically disqualify a team if subsequent performances and overall strength of schedule provide context for inclusion. Notre Dame has benefited from that framework heading into the final CFP rankings.

3. The Cut-Line Crunch

With the penultimate CFP rankings set to release Tuesday night, most analysts do not anticipate major changes around the cut line. Rivalry Week outcomes largely confirmed expectations, leaving teams like Notre Dame and Miami in their current relative positions. For Miami to break through, the committee would need to dramatically reconsider the weight of late-season dominance and head-to-head victories, a move that has historically been rare. The Hurricanes’ path to inclusion hinges on subjective evaluation rather than clear-cut metrics. Other teams near the edge, including Texas and other Power 5 programs, continue to add complexity to the final deliberations. Close wins, margin of victory, and comparative results against common opponents all factor into these fine distinctions. Ultimately, Miami’s strong finish and early-season win present a compelling argument, but Notre Dame’s consistent body of work and committee favor make the Irish the current team on the playoff bubble with the advantage.