Pablo Lopez to Undergo Tommy John Surgery, Ending 2026 Season

Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez will undergo Tommy John surgery on Wednesday, according to Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic, marking a major setback for the team’s pitching staff heading into the 2026 season.

Lopez, who was expected to anchor the rotation alongside Joe Ryan, had been dealing with an elbow injury that raised concerns over whether surgery would be necessary. The confirmation of Tommy John surgery ends any hope of a full season from the All-Star right-hander.

The news is particularly difficult for the Twins, as Lopez had established himself as one of the more reliable starters in the league. Recovery from Tommy John surgery typically takes 12-18 months, meaning Lopez will likely miss all of the upcoming season and could face an extended timeline to return to full strength.

This development leaves the Twins’ rotation in a state of uncertainty. With Lopez sidelined, Minnesota will rely heavily on Ryan and other starters to fill the void and keep the pitching staff competitive.

1. Lopez’s Recent Performance

Despite limited action last season, Lopez was highly effective on the mound. He posted a 2.74 ERA across 14 starts, demonstrating the consistency and skill that made him an All-Star in 2023. Even with innings restrictions, Lopez remained a key contributor to the Twins’ rotation, offering both control and strikeout ability while keeping opponents off balance. His presence was expected to stabilize the rotation heading into 2026. Lopez’s injury was first reported earlier in the offseason, but the severity remained unclear. The confirmation of surgery removes any ambiguity and signals a significant long-term impact on Minnesota’s pitching plans. Losing a starter of Lopez’s caliber will likely force the Twins to adjust their strategy, leaning more heavily on younger arms or potential offseason acquisitions to compensate for his absence.

2. Rotation Challenges for the Twins

With Lopez out, Joe Ryan will become the clear leader of the Twins’ rotation. Ryan will carry added responsibility to anchor a staff that now faces both uncertainty and heightened expectations. Minnesota’s pitching depth will be tested as the team looks to fill the gap left by Lopez. The organization may need multiple starters to perform above expectations simply to maintain competitiveness in the American League Central. Other rotation candidates will have the opportunity to step into more prominent roles, but few can match Lopez’s combination of experience and proven results. This makes his absence particularly impactful as the team navigates spring training and prepares for Opening Day. The Twins’ management will likely explore internal options and possible trades or free-agent acquisitions to shore up the rotation, emphasizing the importance of pitching depth in a division that continues to be competitive.

3. Outlook and Recovery

Recovery from Tommy John surgery is a long process, often requiring 12 to 18 months for pitchers to return to previous levels of performance. Lopez’s rehabilitation will be closely monitored by the Twins’ medical staff. The timing of the surgery means he will miss the 2026 season entirely, with his return tentatively projected for 2027. This provides the team with an extended window to plan around his absence while also ensuring that Lopez can fully recover before resuming pitching duties. While the news is disheartening, it is not necessarily career-altering for Lopez. Many pitchers successfully return from Tommy John surgery to perform at or near their previous levels, though the recovery period requires patience and careful management. Updates on Lopez’s progress will be critical for the Twins and their fans. As spring training begins, the team must adapt quickly to this loss and reconfigure its rotation in order to remain competitive without one of its top starting pitchers.