Quarterback Race for 2026 NFL Draft Sees Dramatic Shake-Up as New Faces Emerge

The 2025 college football season has been defined by volatility, and nowhere is that more evident than among the quarterbacks vying for NFL draft attention. What began as a class headlined by LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier and South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers has evolved dramatically, with fresh names now commanding the spotlight.

In ESPN’s latest poll of 25 NFL scouts and executives, Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza surged to the top of the list, receiving 13 votes to lead all candidates. Oregon’s Dante Moore finished second with six votes, followed by Alabama’s Ty Simpson with three. None of the three were mentioned in ESPN’s first poll six weeks earlier — a testament to how much the season’s twists have reshaped scouting boards.

Rounding out the list were Oklahoma’s John Mateer, Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby, and South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers, each receiving one vote. Sellers and Mateer were the only quarterbacks to earn votes in both polls. The turnover underscores how uncertain and competitive this year’s quarterback evaluation process has become.

“It’s not a stellar class,” one NFL scout told ESPN. “But if you include the guys who might declare early, it starts to get more interesting. The top-end talent is stronger than last year’s class — just not as stable.”

1. From Early Favorites to Midseason Struggles

Just six weeks ago, the quarterback race looked entirely different. Sellers led the initial poll with eight votes, edging Nussmeier’s seven. Behind them were Miami’s Carson Beck (three votes), Mateer (three), Penn State’s Drew Allar (two), Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt (one), and Texas’ Arch Manning (one). Since then, the class’s overall perception has soured. Sellers and Nussmeier have both struggled amid inconsistent team play, while Allar suffered a season-ending injury that derailed Penn State’s offense. Manning, meanwhile, has yet to meet the lofty expectations that came with his family name and five-star pedigree. The decline of those early favorites has opened the door for emerging talents like Mendoza, Moore, and Simpson — all of whom have seized their opportunities to impress scouts with improved accuracy, decision-making, and leadership under pressure. Still, no player has yet separated himself as a clear-cut No. 1 overall prospect. “Mendoza’s trending in the right direction,” another scout said. “But he’s not a lock. There’s still a lot of football left and plenty for teams to evaluate before anyone feels confident.”

2. Mendoza, Moore, and Simpson Take Center Stage

Of the new frontrunners, Fernando Mendoza has become the most talked-about name. After transferring from Cal, he has flourished under Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti and offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan. Mendoza has completed 72.3% of his passes — up from 68.7% last season — while throwing for 25 touchdowns and adding four more on the ground. His yards per attempt have jumped from 7.8 to 9.5, and his 6-foot-5, 225-pound frame gives him prototypical NFL size. Scouts highlight Mendoza’s ability to read defenses, deliver accurate throws under pressure, and make what one described as “wow” plays from the pocket. A memorable moment came against Iowa, when he absorbed a hit from a linebacker yet delivered a pinpoint pass to a receiver in tight coverage. “He’s decisive and tough,” one evaluator said. “He sees the whole field and can drive the ball anywhere.” Oregon’s Dante Moore, meanwhile, has seen his stock skyrocket after a long wait for his chance. A former five-star recruit who started briefly at UCLA in 2023, Moore backed up Dillon Gabriel last season before taking over as Oregon’s starter this fall. Through 13 games, he has posted 19 touchdowns, a 71.4% completion rate, and 1,772 passing yards. At 6-foot-3 and 206 pounds, scouts view him as a poised, efficient passer with natural arm talent. Alabama’s Ty Simpson has also become a name to watch. Despite limited experience entering 2025, he has thrown for 2,184 yards and 20 touchdowns against just one interception. While some believe he may return to college to gain more starts, others see his quick release and accuracy as signs he could rise into first-round territory with a strong finish.

3. Wildcards and Uncertain Futures

Beyond the top trio, a few quarterbacks continue to intrigue scouts as potential sleepers. Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby has shown flashes of promise despite uneven performances against top competition like Nebraska and Utah. “He’s big, athletic, and smart,” one scout said. “He can create plays off-script, change arm angles, and command respect in the huddle. He’s got that ‘it’ factor.” Oklahoma’s John Mateer remains on radars as well, earning quiet praise for his leadership and steady play. South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers, though less consistent than early in the year, still offers intriguing physical traits and dual-threat ability that could tempt teams looking for developmental upside. Still, many evaluators acknowledge that this class — while deep in potential — lacks a consensus top-tier quarterback like Caleb Williams or Drake Maye from previous years. Much of the coming months will hinge on postseason performances, pre-draft workouts, and decisions by underclassmen who may opt to stay in school. “Right now, it’s a wide-open race,” an AFC scout summed up. “We might not know who the true QB1 is until the combine or even later.”