Sam Darnold’s Next Seahawks Contract May Hinge on Baker Mayfield’s New Deal

The Seattle Seahawks made one of the boldest quarterback decisions in recent memory when they moved on from Geno Smith and signed Sam Darnold before the 2025 season. The move drew widespread skepticism at the time, but Darnold quickly silenced many critics by leading Seattle on a memorable run to the Super Bowl.

Following that breakthrough campaign, attention has shifted from proving he belongs as a starting quarterback to establishing himself as Seattle’s long-term answer at the position. The coming season could play a significant role in determining whether the Seahawks commit to Darnold with another lucrative contract.

Darnold is entering the second season of the three-year contract he signed in 2025, making him eligible for an extension during the 2027 offseason. While those negotiations remain some time away, both the quarterback and the organization are already likely evaluating what the next agreement could look like.

According to NFL insider Albert Breer, one quarterback’s contract discussions may provide valuable insight into Darnold’s future. Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield, whose career has followed a remarkably similar path, could establish a benchmark for Seattle’s eventual negotiations with Darnold.

1. Baker Mayfield Provides a Useful Contract Comparison

Breer believes Mayfield’s upcoming negotiations with the Buccaneers deserve close attention from Darnold and the Seahawks. The similarities between the two quarterbacks extend well beyond their draft class and have continued throughout much of their professional careers. Both players entered the NFL with enormous expectations after being selected near the top of the 2018 draft. Neither immediately developed into a long-term franchise quarterback with the teams that originally drafted them, leading each to continue his career elsewhere. Interestingly, both quarterbacks eventually spent time with the Carolina Panthers before rebuilding their careers with NFC West organizations in California. Those opportunities allowed each player to restore confidence before earning another chance to become a full-time starter. Their resurgence eventually resulted in comparable contract structures. Mayfield signed a three-year contract worth $100 million with Tampa Bay, while Darnold received a similar three-year deal from Seattle after his outstanding 2025 campaign. Those nearly identical situations make Mayfield’s next contract negotiations a logical point of reference.

2. Seattle Wants Proof Last Season Was No Fluke

Although Darnold exceeded expectations during his first year with the Seahawks, the organization will likely seek additional evidence before committing to another long-term extension. One exceptional season alone may not be enough to justify a contract that places him among the league’s highest-paid quarterbacks. Seattle’s evaluation becomes even more important following offseason coaching changes. Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, who played an important role in Darnold’s success, departed to become the head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders. That change places additional pressure on Darnold to demonstrate he can maintain elite production regardless of the coaching staff around him. Replicating last season’s performance under new leadership would strengthen the argument that his breakout campaign reflected genuine development rather than a favorable system. For the Seahawks, consistency will be one of the biggest factors during future negotiations. If Darnold proves he can deliver another successful season while keeping Seattle among the NFC’s top contenders, the front office will have greater confidence in building around him for years to come.

3. Strong 2026 Season Could Lead to Major Payday

While Mayfield’s negotiations may establish part of the quarterback market, Darnold ultimately controls his own future through his performance this season. Another productive campaign would significantly improve his leverage when extension discussions eventually begin. The Seahawks also have reason to approach negotiations carefully. Quarterback contracts continue to rise across the NFL, making every long-term commitment a major financial decision that can influence roster construction for years. If Darnold once again leads Seattle deep into the postseason while producing at a high level statistically, the organization may have little choice but to reward him with a contract reflecting his importance to the franchise. Quarterbacks capable of consistently winning games remain among the league’s most valuable assets. For now, however, both sides remain focused on the upcoming season rather than future negotiations. Darnold has another opportunity to prove his remarkable 2025 campaign was only the beginning, while the Seahawks will use the season to determine whether he deserves to become the franchise’s long-term quarterback. In the meantime, Mayfield’s negotiations in Tampa Bay could quietly provide an early glimpse into what Darnold’s own contract discussions may eventually resemble.