Top 3 NFL MVP Candidates Through Week 7
- Firoz Gill
- 6 min read

The 2025 NFL season has reached its midpoint, and the race for the Most Valuable Player award is heating up with a familiar trend: quarterbacks leading the charge. Through seven weeks, standout performances, team success, and statistical dominance have shaped the conversation, with the award historically favoring signal-callers on winning teams. The current frontrunners have combined individual brilliance with critical contributions to their squads’ standings, making the competition fierce. Drawing from betting odds, advanced metrics, and recent game outcomes, this article dives into the top three candidates who are setting the pace.
This season’s MVP race reflects the NFL’s evolving landscape, where versatility and clutch play define value. Quarterbacks remain the focal point due to their outsized impact on game outcomes, but the criteria extend beyond raw stats. Team records, leadership in high-stakes moments, and narrative momentum play significant roles in swaying voters. As of Week 7, the candidates are backed by strong numbers and pivotal wins, but the race remains open with challenging schedules looming.
The betting markets provide a snapshot of the race, with odds shifting weekly based on performances and team trajectories. Data from sources like ESPN, NFL.com, and betting platforms such as Bet365 and FanDuel highlight the leaders, while fan discussions on X add context to public sentiment. However, upsets or breakout games could reshape the leaderboard, especially with key matchups in the coming weeks.
With the season at a critical juncture, the top candidates have separated themselves through consistency, playmaking, and team success. Below, we break down the cases for the three players making the strongest bids for the 2025 NFL MVP award, examining their stats, impact, and challenges ahead. Each has a unique story, but only one will claim the ultimate prize in February.
1. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
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Patrick Mahomes, the Kansas City Chiefs’ superstar, sits atop the MVP odds at +175, a testament to his enduring excellence. After a rocky 0-2 start, Mahomes has orchestrated a 4-1 surge, including a commanding 31-0 rout of the Raiders in Week 7, where he threw for 286 yards and three touchdowns with zero interceptions. His season totals—1,800 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, and just two interceptions—reflect his precision and efficiency. Add in 250 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns, and Mahomes’ dual-threat ability continues to redefine the quarterback position. Beyond the numbers, Mahomes’ value lies in his ability to elevate an offense that faced early questions. The return of wideout Rashee Rice has unlocked new dimensions, with Mahomes spreading the ball effectively to multiple targets. His 109.7 passer rating ranks among the league’s best, and his leadership in high-pressure situations—like a come-from-behind win against the Chargers in Week 5—underscores his clutch gene. Kansas City’s 5-2 record and contention for another AFC West title bolster his case, as voters often reward players on top teams. However, Mahomes faces challenges to maintain his lead. The Chiefs’ schedule includes tough tests against the Bills and Ravens, where losses could dent his narrative. Additionally, his interception count, while low, includes a costly pick in Week 2 against the Bengals that nearly cost them the game. Staying mistake-free will be critical, especially as younger quarterbacks like Drake Maye push the pace. Mahomes’ experience gives him an edge, but consistency will determine if he secures his third MVP. Looking ahead, Mahomes’ path to the award hinges on Kansas City’s playoff positioning and his ability to deliver in marquee games. A potential Week 9 showdown with Josh Allen could be a defining moment, as could a strong finish against divisional rivals. With an implied 36% chance of winning per current odds, Mahomes remains the favorite, but the margin is slim. His blend of stats, leadership, and team success makes him the player to beat as the season progresses.
2. Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Baker Mayfield’s resurgence with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers has been one of the 2025 season’s most compelling stories, propelling him to +320 odds in the MVP race. Leading the Bucs to a 5-2 record and a tie for the NFC’s top seed, Mayfield has posted a league-leading 17 passing touchdowns and 1,866 yards through seven weeks. His 109.3 passer rating and 68% completion percentage highlight a career-best campaign, transforming him from a journeyman to a legitimate star. Wins over strong teams like the Seahawks and 49ers have cemented his impact. Mayfield’s growth under head coach Todd Bowles has been remarkable. His command of the offense, paired with improved decision-making, has Tampa Bay humming. In Week 4, he torched the Eagles for 347 yards and three scores, showcasing his ability to dominate quality defenses. However, a lackluster Week 7 performance against the Lions—where he posted a 66.1 passer rating—raised questions about his consistency. Minimizing such outings will be key to maintaining his MVP trajectory. The narrative around Mayfield adds weight to his candidacy. Once a No. 1 overall pick written off by multiple teams, his redemption arc resonates with voters. His low interception count (around three) and ability to spread the ball to receivers like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin showcase his maturation. Yet, Tampa Bay’s reliance on a balanced attack means Mayfield must continue producing gaudy numbers to outshine flashier names like Mahomes or Allen. Mayfield’s upcoming schedule, including clashes with the Patriots and Bills, will test his mettle. If he can lead Tampa Bay to a division title and sustain his statistical edge, he could become the first non-elite pedigree quarterback to win MVP since Cam Newton in 2015. His underdog story and current production make him a serious contender, but he’ll need to avoid late-season stumbles to overtake the favorite.
3. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
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Josh Allen, the reigning 2024 MVP, remains a formidable contender at +400 odds, steering the Buffalo Bills to a 4-2 record. His 1,397 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, and four interceptions reflect a strong but not flawless start, complemented by 254 rushing yards and three scores. Allen’s dual-threat style continues to make him a nightmare for defenses, as seen in a 300-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Jets in Week 5. His ability to extend plays keeps Buffalo competitive even in tough matchups. Allen’s value to the Bills is undeniable, as he accounts for a significant chunk of their offensive output. His 105.0 passer rating and knack for delivering in the clutch—like a game-winning drive against Miami in Week 3—keep him in the MVP hunt. However, Buffalo’s two losses, including a surprising defeat to the Falcons in Week 6, have slightly dimmed his shine. Reducing turnovers, particularly after a two-interception game against Atlanta, will be crucial for Allen to climb back to the top. The Bills’ offense leans heavily on Allen’s playmaking, with a relatively thin receiving corps outside of rookie Keon Coleman. His ability to create yards with his legs—leading the team in rushing in two games—sets him apart from other quarterbacks. Still, voter fatigue could be a factor, as Allen’s 2024 win might make some hesitant to crown him again unless Buffalo dominates the AFC East. A favorable schedule offers a chance to pad his stats, but he’ll need signature wins to solidify his case. Allen’s path to another MVP hinges on leading the Bills to a strong record and outdueling rivals like Mahomes in their Week 9 matchup. If he can cut down on mistakes and push Buffalo toward a top seed, his dual-threat dominance could sway voters. For now, he trails slightly due to team performance and consistency, but his ceiling remains as high as anyone’s in the league.